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Bitcoin Technical Analysis 25-07-2021

Bitcoin Technical Analysis, Will The Bull Market start to push Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies to another high?


By looking at the history of Bitcoin you will see that any bear market stayed more than 300 days before being handed over to bull markets.

Let’s go deeper into the Bitcoin chart

  1. The last 3 bear markets were on average 300 days.
  2. Always create 3 tests for the trend line before the collapse
  3. Usually China interferes with the market to push it down all the time.
  4. There is one billionaire defend Bitcoin.

The first two points can observe them on the chart below. In 2018 China was forbidden to deal with Bitcoin for a while, and I think if you are a bitcoin trader of the holder, then you do remember John MacAfee.


Bitcoin Technical Analysis

From the chart below, we observe that Bitcoin may be trying to create a negative head and shoulders pattern.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

So, if this is the case, then it is a matter of time to see a bigger collapse than 2017 one.

What are the targets of bitcoin decline in this case:

  • Fibo extension is should many targets
  • $19,505 is the last target before the rally starts again.
  • If break below $19K then $13,506 and so on.

This scenario in my opinion could hold 75% of Bitcoin move this year, but there is another chance to start the rally now, but we need some confirmations;

  1. Break one week above $41k
  2. RSI re-test the trend line.

Who DXY chart will affect Bitcoin Technical Analysis?

Since March 2020, when the rally of BTC started, it was obvious it started due to 2 Trillion USD QE issued by FED and 1,7 Trillion Euro QE from ECB, and all other major Central banks followed the same path to help the economy recover from COVID.

Now the economy starts to recover, and you can feel this from the tune of the last FED meeting where they start talking about raising the interest rate and start the tapering before 2023.

All of these factors will help USD to start the rally against all other currencies, gold, bitcoin, and all other CFD.


USD Technical Analysis vs Bitcoin Technical Analysis

In the comparison between DXY – USD Index – and Bitcoin you observer the negative relationship between them.

This means the USD continues the rally which is likely to happen during 2021 till mid-2022, then we can assume that Bitcoin will continue to decline until FED starts to slow down or start to give a negative tune regarding the economy.

What to Monitor for Bitcoin now

  1. GDP on 29th of July, If is more than 8.5% then Bitcoin will decline.
  2. PSE index on 30th of July, less than 3.9 then Bitcoin will decline
  3. NFP on Friday 6th of August, If it is better than expected so Bitcoin will collapse.
  4. Core CPI on 11th of August, if it is lower than 4% the Bitcoin will decline more.

Of course vise versa.

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